Dion Chan's Comments

Did anyone else find misconception 4: "cold feet bath lowers immune system which lead to more cold cases" and misconception 10:"immune system has little to do with whether you get a cold" are contradictory?
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Here's another one,
Take two pieces of paper (blank on both side), then choose one piece and put an 'X' on one side.
Now, get a opaque bag, and put both papers (without folding them up) inside the bag, and mix them up (including mixing up the front and back)
I will now play a betting game with you:
you can take out either piece of paper from the bag but without turning the paper over, and then choose how much you want to bet if the other side of the paper has an X; of course if the X is showing when you first take it out , then the betting is off, and the paper is return inside the bag for another turn.

Here's the question, is having the X on the other side a 50% chance?

The answer would be no. The chances are 33%.
Let's say blank=O and 'X'=X; the two pieces are OO and OX
there is 50% chance that you take out OX, within that, 50% chance that O is showing and the bet is on; and 50% chance that X is showing and the bet is off.
There is also 50% chance that you take out OO, and the bet is on.
That means for the condition that the bet is on, there is only 33% chance that the paper is OX.

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Now back to the boy/girl question; both 1/3 and 1/2 could be correct, depending on how the 'boy known' has come to be known.

I believe there is consensus that when having two children, 'one boy one gir'l is double the chances of 'two boys'; in this case where the sex of both children is known beforehand, the answer would be 1/3.

But if the sex of only one child chosen at random is known, and it happens to be a boy, while the sex of the other child is unknown, then the answer would be 1/2.
Referring to the betting game above, OX represents boy/girl, and OO represents boy/boy; but now add in another OX as boy/girl is double the chances of boy/boy.
The doubling of OX cancels out the 50% chance where boy/girl becomes invalid. Therefore the overall chances would become 1/2.
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@Al Denelsbeck
A little comment in addition to PlasmaGryphon's;
What you are trying to do, I believe, is to specify 'the boy that is known' into a 50:50 chance of him either being A or B. However, this method is problematic because it has presumption that both A and B COULD be a boy.
There are three possibilities for AB: MF, FM, MM.
For MF, A is the boy specified, where B has 0 chance of being M
For FM, B is the boy specified, where A has 0 chance of being M
For MM, there is 50% chance that A is the boy specified, with 100% chance that B is a boy; visa versa
so 1/3x0(MF)+1/3x0(FM)+1/3x(1/2x1+1/2x1)(MM)=1/3
and that, is the answer
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You should also note that the site states quite clearly (at its About page) that Jews still believe that shrimp is bad. It is mainly targeting certain Christian churches, also stated. Maybe it would be worth checking "what" you are ridiculing before you post?
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I tend to agree with Ash (above), I used to study Psychology, which includes a topic on sleep; research on sleep deprivation showed no long term cognitive damage, and could be recovered rather quickly. There does not seem to be an 'ideal' amount as well, although most people each night would go through 4-5 rounds of deep sleep to Rem sleep, each round taking 1.5hrs, thus 6-8hrs is usually advised

One must take caution to the research the video quoted, as most of them are not random trial based. People sleep less maybe because they have more work, or greater mental pressure due to family/work issues, which is the real reason that leads to their higher risk of disease and death
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Profile for Dion Chan

  • Member Since 2013/01/23


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