The Government told us that the Great Recession ended in 2009, but why does it still feel like we're in one? That's because we are actually still in a recession, silly! Well, according to economist Richard Koo of Nomura Research Institute:

This kind of recession Koo is talking about is not a technical recession. After all, the economy is technically growing -- slowly, imperceptibly, like the turning of the earth. But upon closer inspection, we're in a shadow recession he and other economists call a "balance sheet recession." That means that just about everybody in the Western World -- households, corporations, and sometimes even governments -- is focused on paying off our balance sheets (i.e.: paying off debt) at the same time. That's nice for our balance sheets. But it's a horrible way to jumpstart a weak economy.

Koo does the yeoman's work of drawing the picture of balance sheets in the United States and some major European economies. The jagged lines are a bit of an eyesore, but they tell a simple story. Between the IT Bubble and the Housing Bubble that book-ended the 2000s, households (in red), corporations (in blue) or both borrowed lots of money, year after year. Then the recession hit, and our incomes fell, and we started running surpluses by saving more of our money.

Derek Thompson of The Atlantic boils it down for us: Link | Or read Richard's full paper [PDF]

“The current recession stands apart from prior downturns for both the depth and breadth of destruction in the job market,” the report says. “California has lost more jobs at a faster rate in the past two years than during any prior recession for which data are available, and employment has fallen in nearly every major sector of the economy.”

Because of the decline in the number of jobs coupled with growth in the labor force, the report finds that the percentage of working-age Californians who hold jobs has fallen to its lowest level in 32 years. Citing U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics, the report says just 57.5 percent of California adults are working.

The last time the percentage was that low was in 1977, a time when many women voluntarily chose not to work outside their homes. The percentage of employed adults peaked in 1989 at 64.9 percent.

Timm Herdt of Ventura County Star has the grim news: Link | California Budget Project Press Release [PDF]

Still, the economists at the ECRI (Economic Cycles Research Institute) are darn smart and have a pretty good track record, so perhaps there’s truly something to their latest prediction: the economy is turning around and the recession will soon be over.

NPR’s All Things Considered has the scoop:

"The reason we’re so convinced — and we are quite convinced — that the recession is drawing to a close is because of leading indicators," Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the institute, tells NPR’s Guy Raz.

The ECRI categorizes indicators, like unemployment rates and productivity, as leading, lagging or coinciding with the business cycle. A lagging indicator would be the unemployment rate. Leading indicators include "drivers of the economy," such as housing activity, productivity, money growth and credit.

Different sequences of indicators point to different types of events. Achuthan says the ECRI sees a robust sequence of events that happen at the beginning and end of recessions, and indicators are showing it is likely that there will be a recovery soon.

"The key is that there is no one piece that we’re hanging our hat on. It is a pervasive upturn in these leading indicators, and that is the hallmark of something that is going to persist for a few quarters, a year at least," Achuthan says. "And it is going to be pronounced."

Achuthan says that when you add up all the indicators without bias into a leading index, the picture becomes clear: These indexes are shooting up. And that says a lot. In the time that these indicators have been in existence, they have not made a mistake on a recession or a recovery poll, he says.

Link

What do you think? Will the economy recover soon or are you pessimistic?

Digital Inspiration features a map illustrating the countires least affected by the global recession, as ranked according to a survey conducted by Servcorp for the Herald Sun.

Australia takes the top spot followed by China with India and Singapore in equal third place. Qatar is the only gulf nation that figures in this “relatively” recession-proof list.

The data is based on the results of a business confidence survey that was done on international business people of 24 nations to identify which countries they believe are surviving the crisis the best.

Link – via google

From the Upcoming ueue, submitted by mrsmojorisin.