James Bond Shot at 4,662 Times During His Career

What are the odds that 007 would survive? Gordon Stanger noted each time that someone took a shot at Bond and crunched the numbers. In New Scientist, he writes:

There is some ambiguity over how many gunshots have been fired at James Bond because, in many gunfights, it is not clear who the shots are aimed at. However, by my reckoning, in the 22 Bond films to date, there have been at least 4662 shots fired at our hero. A static well-aimed shot would almost certainly have proved lethal, but assuming all 4662 were "on the run", the probability of a single fatal shot is about 5 per cent. That is, the chance of a single shot missing is 0.95, and hence the probability of all shots missing is 0.954662 or 1.4 × 10-104, which is as close to zero as makes no difference.


Link -via Say Uncle | Image: United Artists

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That calculation is flawed. He has a supposition (a 5% chance of receiving a fatal gunshot wound on the run) for which he has little basis. The actual odds vary tremendously according to a number of factors, including distance the shot is taken from (very important), skill of the shooter (importance grows with distance), and whether the person moving is actively aware of the incoming shot. While you can't dodge a bullet Matrix-style, if you're aware and experienced, you can decrease the odds that you're hit by adjusting your movements according to what's going on with your attacker. And all of that belays the difference between a hit and a fatal hit. The military gauges the probability of a gunshot wound sustained in battle being fatal as 33%.

Applying a blanket probability only works if you're calculating the odds of a random person surviving that many random gunshots from random people at random distances. The odds of a particular person surviving a specific set of gunshots is totally different, as it constrains the shooter, ranges, and target.
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ummm "No" that logic is ridiculous
actually it means that even using your average, he would have been shot 233 times already (Fatal shots)
*and how many other times would he have been shot with serious injuries besides death, such as paralyzing shots, blown out knees, hands, etc.
combine that with the fact that 2 or more "non-fatal" shots can together cause death

Thats not even taking into account the commenter above me, which should also be considered ........nice try though, and if the original poster trusts those odds I invite you to my house anytime and I bet I can get with with 6 or less ;)
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I didn't read the article but I want to point out if Bond shot at anyone with the gun he is holding he wouldn't kill any one. It's a Walther model 53 air pistol. It's a single shot .177 cal pellet gun! I still laugh whenever I see any photos of him holding it. What a farce. My father bought the same gun (S/N 012915) for me in 1956 when he was stationed in Heidelberg Germany in the U.S. Army.

(at least they used a Walther but it's a far cry from a PPK)
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@ Mr Buddy - Using my average? I didn't give you any average for the probability of being shot while moving, because as I explained it's a meaningless number. The only number I offered was the military's historical average of gun shots wounds which are fatal (roughly 1 in 3). That says nothing about your actual chances of being hit by a bullet, only the consequences of being hit (even that number is meaningless here, because a sample set composed of soldiers in combat is entirely different. It was only to illustrate that even in open warfare where many many more bullets are flying, the odds of death aren't as high as you'd assume).

And the reasoning is far from absurd; its called conditional probability. The author of the article calculated was the probability of Bond being hit if 4662 random shots were fired at him (using a questionable probability as mentioned before). But the question asked is the odds of him surviving those specific 4662 shots. The difference is subtle but important, as the actual question implies a set of conditions. To calculate that correctly, you'd need to calculate the odds for each individual shot (your odds of hitting a target at 10 yards is totally different than your odds at 100 yards, and the accuracy of a machine is different from a pistol).

This is why its so easy to deceive people with statistics. The precision of the question you're asking makes a big difference, as does the randomness of your data set.

Oh, and as for the glib comment about being sure you can hit me in 6 shots or less? I'm guessing that might change if I'm shooting back at you. Fine motor control drastically decreases when your heart rate spikes. Unless you've had extensive training to keep your heart rate low under life threatening conditions, whatever accuracy you might have at the range is going to drop dramatically. As a simple example, if you ever watch Top Shot, you'll see many professional shooters miss shots at static targets because they force them to have elevated heart rates prior to shooting in some of the challenges.
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