To go or not to go? That is the question.
I want to go now to the grocery to restock the supplies I have at home. But if everybody does the same, then the grocery might be full, and so it would be best if I don’t go. But if everybody else decides to not go and just stay at home, then the store will be empty, and so I should go because it’s ideal for me. And thus I go back and forth and be stuck in a loop, and spend all day at home theorizing whether I should go or not.
Turns out there is a way to get out of this loop, and that is through a game theory in 1994 by W. Brain Arthur.
He figured out what he called the El Farol Bar problem, based on a Santa Fe bar that had a popular music event on Thursday evenings. The problem assumes a group of 100 people who do not know what the others will do. In this problem, if more than 60 people (60 percent) show up, the overcrowding in the finite space would cause a displeasing evening. Guests will have a more enjoyable time if they stay home. Yet if less than 60 people show up, the attendees would have a better time going than staying home. They want to go, but not if the bar is too crowded. They need to decide…
Sounds similar to our grocery problem up there, doesn’t it? That’s because it is. You just have to know your own variables such as an estimate of how many people go to the same store as you.
Unfortunately, you’d have to be familiar with statistics in order to solve your own grocery problem.
Learn more about how to do this over at Nautilus.
As for me, I’ll just go anyway, and leave everything up to chance.
What are your thoughts about this one?
(Image Credit: Nautilus)