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Who Will Die Next on Game of Thrones? A Statistician Offers His Predictions


(Image: HBO)

George R.R. Martin's slaughter of the inhabitants of Westeros and Essos appears random, but there are clear patterns that can detected and extended mathematically. Dr. Richard Vale, a professor of mathematics at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, has conducted a survey of the first five books in Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire novel series. He has applied Bayesian statistical methods to the deaths in those books to make predictions about The Winds of Winter, the upcoming sixth novel in the series. You can read his formal paper on the subject here.

Warning: spoilers and math. Lots of math.

-via Ian Chant


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