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The Coming Collapse of the United States

You and I may be facing an economic collapse, but one Russian professor is having the time of his life. For over a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin had been predicing the US to fall apart and most people ignored him ... until now. He's been the darling of Russia's news media with his dire prediction of the future of the United States:

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control. [...]

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

Link


Awesome, I've always felt European any way.
Seriously though, I could see the U.S. screwing up, but Russia, China, and Mexico won't be picking up any pieces. They can't get out of their own collective way.
Funny hypothesis all the same.
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Right. Time to Netflix Red Dawn tovarish.
Furthermore the comment about Canada is right on.
Alaska and Texas are good examples of States that could be independent countries on their own. Why would they be under the influence of Russia or Mexico? Because they are neighbors? Dude plays too much Risk.
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Oh yea, right... Let's see, Idaho and Utah part of The California Republic which will be part of China or under Chinese influence... Georgia and Alabama part of Mexico or under Mexican influence... South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia part of Atlantic America which may join the European Union... I've read some pretty stupid sounding things before, but this is way out there. This so-called Russian professor has absolutely no flippin idea about anything here in the U.S. and obviously has been spending way too much time at the bottom of a bottle of vodka...
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Paul in Boca,

Alaska was originally part of Russia. You must really be informed...Oh then I guess not so much! It was Tina Fey who said she could see Russia from her house. So I guess you stopped paying attention somewhere around..... 3rd grade?
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Even if the US were to split this prediction seems grossly oversimplified and ignores any political or social climate differences. If things get really bad the first to go will be Texas and Alaska but they will want independence.

June 2010? That's just silly. Things may get worse but this country will hardly turn into Mad Max by then.
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C in NM

Palin's actual quote was: "They're our next-door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska."

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4478156n

So calm down
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I can only speak on the Canadian aspect. Alaska may become a territory in Canada, probably not.

The Central North in the prediction does not share Canadian values (but neither does Alberta). Canada is liberal at its core, and the American Midwest is not liberal. In short they are not Canadian enough. But if they would get in, it would give Alberta a friend to play with.

An area from New England down to Pennsylvania, including Michigan might join Canada if stability is needed. Since they are fairly close in social mores, and technology, and lifestyle. The fact that the EU could exert much influence across the pond is laughable, since they can barely exert influence in their own continent. Just look at the problems with their "constitution".

China is too far from California to be any strong influence. California is strong enough to go it on its own. They basically do today anyway.

Hawaii already has an independence movement. It will probably become a country on its own. Maybe even restore the Monarchy.

From what I can estimate, Texas hates Mexico more than any other state. They are also socially very different.

The famous "Jesusland vs. United States of Canada" is probably a better guess than this Russian can do simply because he doesn't incorporate social flow.
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C in NM, you, sir or madam, are the truly "informed". Two seconds of research in the Wiki will give you all the information you need about Russian ownership,and subsequent sale of Alaska, to the US. ("Russian America", you could look it up.) But, I guess since you are stuck in kindergarten for perpetuity, you wouldn't know actual things like, history.
Alison, thanks! :-)
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The USSR failed and fell apart. Russia is also falling apart. Mexico is a failed state, run by drug lords. China is about to collapse as demand for toys goes down. Canada is 1/10 the size of the US by population and has NO influence. Europe? They can't even pass a constitution or field an army.

This russian is an idiot.
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Big Johnson makes the best point, I think. This map is assuming the the rest of the world is completely safe and secure from the global credit crunch.
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While he may not be TOTALLY off the mark, I seriously doubt the WHOLE of the USA will fall under the control of another country. Especially the EU, or China. I suspect that if it DOES come to Civil war, we will simply divide into separate countries under our OWN influence. I don't see us suddenly merging with a country a whole ocean away, and I see the americans being to proud to mix with Mexico.....
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The professor is right about many countries failing. The US may be one of them, but his dividing lines owe too much to geometry and not enough to politics. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and California would have much more affinity to mexico than Georgia and Alabama. Without going into all of the details, his map doesn't make sense.

The breakup will be messy, and will involve nuclear weapons deployed against US cities. See, for example, Sherman's march to the sea.
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Paul in Boca,

You can actually see Russia from Alaska. "Russia and Alaska are divided by the Bering Strait, which is about 55 miles at its narrowest point. In the middle of the Bering Strait are two small, sparsely populated islands: Big Diomede, which sits in Russian territory, and Little Diomede, which is part of the United States. At their closest, these two islands are a little less than two and a half miles apart, which means that, on a clear day, you can definitely see one from the other." :
http://www.slate.com/id/2200155/
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I assume that the commentator who said that the Midwest is not Canadian enough has never been to MN. MN is a very liberal state that has not voted for a republican president in many, many elections.
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Ummmm....okaaaaay. What about the 5400 US nook-u-ler warheads scattered around the country/world? I suspect if things really did get all Red Dawn on us that nukes would definitely be in play. The hard part would be deciding which Canadian or Mexican cities were actually worth nuking.

Sorry, one ticket to hell, please.
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Big Johnson has the best take on it, I think, along with everyone who noted (correctly) that Texas would want to be its own country. Plus, compare and contrast with the article above this one about drug lords south of the border. Mexico controlling US states? It is to laugh.

My question is what happens to states like Indiana? We sit in the middle and we don't bother anyone, so what happens when everything around us goes pear-shaped? There's a lot of folks here who would just head for the back country (or for Texas), but the more urban areas would be left hanging. It's an interesting thought exercise, if nothing else.
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really? all of the current States borders remain intact?

The U.S. could plausibly break up, but this map is ridiculous.
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Alison,

Thanks for citing my original post. I knew it was true. I just didn't think I needed to prove it.

Also, thank you for your concern about my health, however I think it might be displaced emotions as I didn't care enough to provide citations for my true statements. I did notice that you put some effort into proving true what you thought was false. If I had not stumbled back onto this site I would not have replied to your post.
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Makes me glad I already live in Texas - maybe I should invest in more real estate before our market gets flooded!

Those who think Texas would be its own country (again) in a situation like this are spot on. We would probably put Willie Nelson on the Texas $1.
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But I should also add that being home to the largest Army base in the US (Fort Hood) makes it very unlikely that Texas could ever be independent of the US - although I guess they could turn it into the US Embassy here. :)
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Huh. I think this prof dug up an old (seventies or early eighties) Smithsonian magazine that mentioned a proposal for divvying up the US along economic lines (for states, rather than separate countries, IIRC.) The idea was that the rustbelt would be one region/state, New England another, etc.
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What a load of bologna. The US is still the greatest and most powerful force for good in the world. Every small minded envious twit is hoping for Americas downfall so we can join their miserable existence. Ever been to Russia? Don't waste your time, it's a Hole. Ever been to China? Another Hole. America has its problems, but I'll take our problems over every the armpits of the world like Russia and China.
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it's funny that people confuse 'saturday night live' with reality. :D and alaska was hardly 'originally' russian. russia claimed it for a brief period of time. that's hardly 'original'. just ask the native peoples. :(
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And that big chunk of Russia east of the Caspian Sea will eventually be settled by the Chinese to give them 'living space'and everything west of the Urals will do as the Franco-German run Euro Union will tell them to do until Europe explodes again with centuries old hatreds.Then it's back to the drawing board.
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yippee!!!!!
surely the whole lot would just revert back to the old empire - I'm sure the queen would be be delighted - a cuppa for everyone!!
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This map maker clearly has his head firmly planted in his rectum. Everyone knows that everything east of Texas and south of the Mason Dixon line will become the country of Jesusana.

Scooterp, spend some time in other countries, nowhere is a hole, they've all got as many reasons for living there as the US does. Frankly I preferred both of the holes you described over my native US, far fewer nationalistic asshats than in the US.
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Wow, what a joke this guy must be if he thinks that the United States would so easily be divided like this. As another poster mentioned the author doesnt even seem to understand the most basic of social/political/economic differences of these states and regions.

On top of that, if the Dollar completely collapsed in 2010, none of these other countries (including the EU) would be in any position to be annexing parts of the United States!

Lets look at the facts folks. All of this is just another way that the Kremlin is trying to take a jab at the US.

I mean honestly, does anyone really believe that Texas would want to become a part of Mexico? I don't care how bad it is in the United States, I really doubt it will come to the point where Texas would rather be a part of Mexico... (no offense to any Mexicans)
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Well, my opinion is mostly already said, because all of my fellow Americans commenting here pretty much hit the nail on the head about this map being almost entirely incorrect. His assumptions seem to focus on geography and limited tourist knowledge.

However, I go to school in Southwest VA (VA Tech) and travel a lot to WV, TN, SC. There is not a ghost's chance in hell that any of those states would be caught in the European Union. Hell, I don't think ANY of the "Atlantic America" states would be in the EUROPEAN Union! How does that make any sense? If he really understood North American culture (that includes Canadians), he would know that while many people in the Northeast (including myself, a DCer) identify with lots of values stemming from the EU, they would far prefer Canada over the EU simply because Canada has a way of being liberal and implementing those policies while being distinctly North American. We're not Europeans, we're North Americans. There's a huge difference.

I'm still not too clear on why states like IL, WI, MI, MN would be separate from the Northeast in political/social values. I would think that entire Northeast sector including the Great Lakes region would go Canadian.

However, the entire Southeast (at least outside of VA/NC towards the south and west, maybe including VA and NC) would definitely NOT be under Mexican influence. What a load of hooey. How does California escape this so-called Mexican influence? SoCal is way more "Mexican" than Mississippi! If anything the SE USA would just break away and do its own thing. And I have no idea what the Midwest would do, honestly.

Not to mention that the West Coast would probably end up joining the Northeast & Great Lakes states in joining Canada or doing whatever they would do. Since there's so many "Canadian-influenced" states, they would probably remain independent and just form their own much more liberal democracy, likely parliamentarian instead of republican.

So yeah: the Jesusland & US of Canada map is far more accurate than this.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/business/worldbusiness/30gazprom.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1230605707-8HlI4rTsGm9S67BVGI0C1Q :D
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Americans aren't even under the influence of their own government so how would they fall under the influence of a foreign country. We are way too independent to listen to what anybody has to say except ourselves.
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Wow. As if the EU, Canada, or Mexico could actually annex sections of the US and maintain them. So this guy is a professor? Of what; underwater basket weaving? Somebody wake him up; he's dreaming.
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The US population possesses over 300 million guns. Most of these gun holders are very independent and strongly identify with the US Constitution. Regardless of any governmental or economic collapse, the majority of the people would not tolerate any foreign influence or takeover. Long before any foreign takeover attempt took place, America would engage in a 2nd civil war to reestablish what the founding fathers envisioned for our country: a constitutional republic.
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I agree with sunborn.

I live in BC, here there's alot of Asian influence due to immigration. However, there is a reason why people have moved to Canada / USA... so why would they want to become part of China again?

And the culture further south near the Texas region is very resilient to other groups. From the news that I've gathered in the past. No personal experience in this though.
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Cascadia in a California-dominated republic? Yeah, right! There's no way the NW would ever submit to either Californian or Chinese rule. Free Cascadia!
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i say, we oughtta annex both canada and mexico. thinkaboutit--the messicans afford us cheep labor, the canadians supply us with more oil than any other source (yes, more than saudi arabia, more than iraq, more than venesuela--CANADA is the u.s.'s main oil supplier), and that allows the u.s. to remain a consumer society, with nothing really useful to provied the rest of the world.
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Can't quite see it happening this way, there's absolutly no factoring in of the native american cultures, persomnally I can see them leading and immigrant based uprising against the established hierachy and I really cant see them ever getting friendly with yet anougther white colonial power, be it Russia or the EU, added to which there is no way in hell that Japan would ever let slilicon valley fall under Chinese influence, the Chiba, Valley, Seattle business links are just too strong.

If the south splits away it will be into the old confederate states, I have family there and they take that stuff very seriously. As for the rest, well my guess is the United Canadian and American States (UCAS) predicted in Shadowrun with the central bible belt and religious right states just left to rot & rust (face it guys the rest of the world just doesn't like the evangelical judgement's you keep passing on us.) If the States collapse, no one is coming to their rescue, it would be too politically embarassing.

And as for Texas & Mexico, well I can see what the professors getting at but then he doesn't remember the Alamo, and the Texan's sure do, Texas will go either go confederate or indipendant like California. Either way the most likly main slpit in the US will still be the Mason, Dixie line, I know we're in the 21st century and all but some things will never be forgotten.
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Yeah, I think the chiness influence is to pronounee here. WA and OR (and perhaps ID) would be part of the Canadian section - ID might go to Texas republic (along with Utah and Arizona).

California would probably form is own country (like the 'California Free State' from the Shadowrun game). But I can easily see Nevada and California joining together.
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HollywoodBob, you should leave the USA. Russia, and China, are holes. Big Johnson is the winner of this comment posting. Prosperity originates from the USA. If the dollar falls, then they all go down like dominoes.
HollywoodBob, You've obviously never visited Mexico. It's a hole. They cant even keep their own people in the country because there is no money, no prosperity, etc. You've obviously also never have visited NYC. Russians live here, a LOT of Russians live here. They are here because Russia sucks.
China is hurting because we aren't spending. Canada taking anything is laughable. The only thing they could possibly enforce on us is, "Tim Hortons". The EU is just dang laughable.
Also, HB, if you ever read the constitution, you would know that we are a Gun Bearing people. We would originate back to how things were, when there were no corporations, and the government was small.
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You people cant be serious supporting such a travesty. Any american who isnt pissed off by these people predicting the downfall our our nation needserious re-patrification done to them.

It seems to me thatnone of you arethinking about what would happen toyou if thiswere to really happen. The socio-political fallout from this. The UnitedStates has a big stake in every aspect of not only our lives but the lives andpolitics of therest of the world. Not to mention our economic superiority. You idiots, you support this, guesswhat. Every one ofyou fools using your first amedment previlegde to speak out against your own nation are beyond naive. Do you really think that if the nation split up we would be able to enjkoy our civil libertties? We may have our problems, but they dont compare to the problems of the Chinese governments, the russian government, and YES the European Union. Canadamay be like america on the outside butthey do thingsalot differently than us. I dont want to worship that queen they have, and we shouldnt be subject to their backwards way of life.

If the United States split up like this, if would be higly , likely that thethird and FINAL world war would follw. leading to billions of deaths. Look at whats happening in the middle east over just oil. imagine what would happen if theentire would economy dissapeared because of this fallout.

I dont understandpeople like this. Its rediculousthat you would support the downfall of your own nation without thinking of everything that you would lose. What about your right to free speech, or your right to YOUR OWN MONEY. Or maybe the priviledge of being part of the most powerful militaryforce in theworld. We dont have to worry about invasions, or political fallout.

I guess you people would loveto see your families slaughered everytime thedictators get pissed off about a splinter in their pinkies.
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Tim Hortons is originally Canadian, not Chinese. This professor just shows that stupidity prevails in universities and colleges outside North America, as well as inside.

If the USA were to fail, the other countries would be in no position to do anything about it. They'd be too busy collapsing, themselves.

Just because Russia used to own Alaska, doesn't mean they'd get it back. You might as well say that Spain would then get Florida back, and France would take over Louisana. Or the native Americans would be able to take a piece somewhere. Not likely.
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To: "that.other.guy"
About the NY Times article...
...proof that the Russians can't even run an oil company large enough to rival, ExxonMobil. Essentially, they can't get their mouths away from the Smirnoff bottle long enough to think straight let alone make an accurate predection, based on facts.
They would be so very badly boned if we (USA) failed.
Let me remind some of you who might be too young to remember, the Ruskies had bread lines in the 1980's. For God's sake, they didn't even have toilet paper. Vladamir Putin is a bond villan reject, and he knows it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/business/worldbusiness/30gazprom.htm l?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1230605707-8HlI4rTsGm9S67BVGI0C1Q
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I just finished reading Black Man, by Richard Morgan. It's a pretty good Sci-fi novel, but more to the point, it takes place in a post-succession United States, and there are a lot of similarities to the map above. In fact, you'd almost think this guy had read the book.
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Congratulations Jeffarrived, it's exactly that imperialistic attitude that is going to split the states right down the middle. Your opinion of the rest of the world is so flawed and misguided you dont have a realistic chance at even saving your self, let alone a country that covers nearly half a continent.

Here's the real low down for you. China doesn't care one jot about your current economic problems and they certainly arn't suffering from them. You don't even realise they're buying out Africa with all of it's resources do you. As for the EU and the UK, well, our economic probelms are down to you and the reason we can't come to your rescue, thanks to the sub primes we simply cant afford to. We dont worship the Queen, the general discussion revolving around such subjects usually ask the question, how much longer do they have left? The general anserw, one or two generations at best, the same can be said of the Vatican and the Popes. All of western civilsation is facing a huge change, a change that will destroy all the old countries in all but name at best, the only diffrence is that the younger population of Europe is already planning and organising for what comes after where as your just burying your head in the sand.

You have to realise the the east and west coast are decades ahead of the central states in terms of philosophy, commerce and society and that devide grows greater by the day. Your greatest minds are fleeing your country, your greatest corporations are either corrupt and rely on insider trading or are being brought out by firms that have no nationality and do not care about the average american. Your greatest dream, that of freedom and democracy now belongs to my generation and my peers. The ideals that the states where based on are noble and pure but you your selves betrayed them when you let the neo-cons take power. We have watched those mistakes, we saw them being repeated time and time again and we have no intention of ever letting them happen on the earth we are inheriting.

Your only ray of hope is Obama and the chance he might actually be able repair the bridges you have burnt with your allies, if you do not support him in doing that you dont have a chance. You can not stand alone and if you keep up this frankly, insulting attitude that we are somehow lower than you then you will be alone, and you will fall. Please. listen to your cousins, listen to your fellow man, you have spent a decade not doing so and it's really begining to show. This is the 21st century, 19th and 20th c attitudes will no longer be tolerated, they are a weakness and we can not afford them. Hell you still think that a third world war will be fought on earth, despite the fact your own military is developing orbital capable weapons and Russia and China have already tested theirs. Do you even realise the UK has its own tropical launch facilities as well as being part of the European effort, do you even realise that the space station (the tactical high ground) is a multinational effort that come 2010, 2012 will be supplied almost entirly from Europe and India. Do you even knoqw that your reliance on capatalisim means you have sold all your ace cards to us. Your politicians have sold you down the river and made you little more than 'Merry-Kins' (yes that's what we call you 'cause your so drunk on power and so incapable of really wielding it in a constructive manner) You really should have listened to Bill Hicks, we all did.
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A friend of mine and I have speculated on this from time to time. One obvious first thing that will happen, is when the US government goes belly-up, the individual states will pretty much revert to their own soverign nations.

The US military based over in other countries will continue for a bit, say two or three years, but most forces will be cut back due to not being able to affor to pay for them. Give that situation about five years tops before the countries they're based in kicks them out. Most career military will either go mercenary or come home, depending on how they will pay to get there.
The common enlisted will bail pretty quick.

One thing I forgot to consider is the conferate south. Those states might or might not form their own union. But one scenario I see is the Atlantic reagion will pretty much revert to its original thirteen colony/states, with the midwest reverting to Louisiana Purchase status. Alaska and Hawaii will definately go independent, choosing alignments on a business standpoint. Sometimes Russia, sometimes Canada, specifically Yukon, and British Colombia for AL, and pick any Asian nation for Hawaii as needed. The irony would be to align itself with Japan.

TX, NM, AZ, amd SoCal have no choice but to at least deal with Mexico. Don't forget that Venezuela and Chavez are just itching to stick it to the US, so the collapse will motivate him to invade Mexico with Russia's help. Brazil will probably not stand in the way of that, and the other countries like Panama will simply give in without a fight.

And I'm in agreement that the great lakes reigon would align itself with Canada, specifically Ontario, as in the old fur trader days of the 1600s.

Don't think that the EU is not a contender as an outside influence. These days, the world is watching the US like a hawk. The US will fail, and the world will dance in the streets, a modern version of the fall of Rome.
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The chances of something like this happening are pretty darn slim. First as many others have said if it ever gets that far the bible/old confederate belt would stick together, with the exception of perhaps Florida and Texas.

But more importantly preceding any collapse you are likely going to see some of the states that can exist on their own (New York/New Jersey, Texas, Florida, California) breaking away . From that, as those states typically contribute far in excess to what they receive in addition to the turbulence and insecurity shutting off the tap on foreign investment through T-Bills triggering a huge spending crunch. Since we would be talking about halving the budget. From there either endless bickering over what is left would tear the country apart many joining the states that left, others splitting off into two or so groups. AK and HI would likely be left out to dry as they are too far away and too expensive to upkeep, or the group of states will stick it out until the foreign investment returns and the states and fed cut the fat to live sans some key states.
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i think that when there isn't a civil war in the summer of 2010 and America is still a sovereign nation we collectively bitch slap the that dumbass and ban him from ever speaking again
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This professor has obviously never been to Idaho. We are a fiercely sovereign state, even against our federal government. Lest we forget it was our representatives who fought against the USA PATRIOT act since it infringed on states' rights. We are the leading proponent of gun ownership rights and commerce rights in the union. Idaho Republicans ("Lincoln Republicans", mind you, not this neocon mess) oppose membership in the UN and other sovereignty-robbing entities.

If there is a collapse of the USA, which is kind of a silly concept, this map will never be a reality. Texas will never become part of Mexico - that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Mexico is in no position, politically, militarily, or economically, to be annexing anything. Alaska may be annexed by Canada, as may the American Midwest and Northeast. Idaho will remain sovereign and a nation unto itself as long as possible.

However, the USA will likely have a revolution before a full collapse. This professor has a sci-fi sense of things, not a historical. History shows that cultural divisions (language and racial) divide countries, not necessarily economic. Even if there is a massive economic collapse, the political divisions in America will remain relatively unchanged, at least in revolutionary terms. Outlying political bodies like Alaska and Hawaii may be lost to the union, but these things happen all the time. There is a serious case to be made for Hawaiian independence anyway.
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to all the people defending what sarah palin said, the reason its funny is because its completely irrelevant. it doesnt matter if she said she could see it from her house or from an island, being able to see russia does not give you experience in foreign policy.
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it's sick to see how everyone is waiting for the demise of the US, all are extremely ignorant of America's contribution and significance to the world in every aspect. The Russians are the last to talk about the degradation of values, the economic, societal and cultural collapse and country separation. Russia has been among the most unstable of countries in the last century while America has held itself together successfully through thick and thin and has proven to be one of the most economically and politically stable and successful countries in the world.
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The US may collapse.... but to come under some unwanted foreign-rule? We have the most armed citizenry on the planet. It will not be easy. Maybe not like Red-Dawn, but similar.
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One thing that is not being taken into account is that 90,000,000 of the citizens of the United States of America possess 300,000,000 firearms and are among the most hard headed and xenophobic people on earth.What's more is the majority of those armed Americans live in those Southern States assigned to Mexico and with the racial tensions over illegal immigration a breakdown in social order would probably result in continuous acts of terror and murder against selected ethnic groups both through racism and the promotion of a philosophy of pinning their failure on a convenient scapegoat rather than just taking their lumps and setting out to rebuild.

Any nation that exerted it's influence without invitation would be met with the long known consequence of an invasion of the mainland United States

"You cannot invade mainland America. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass" -Admiral Itsoroku Yamamoto
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Okay...This could happen.

If it does I'm going to probably ponder killing myself because I will be Canadian! lol...SERIOUSLY? this map is all wrong. Cali and Texas would be independent. The atlantic would probably go to the EU.

Hawaii would be and independent state.

Alaska would be taken by Russia the Far north would be under Canadian influence and hopefully Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois make a State in combination...I really don't want to be Canadian, lol.

L.R.
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Most postings here are basicly spot on. The US or portions of it cannot be taken by other entities. What they dont address is why.
The why is no country on earth has the Navy to enforce such takeovers. China is striving to improvre theirs but it takes ten years to grow a carrier based fighter pilot. Russia's is one big pile of rust.
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The US will fail, it is inevitable. In the history of the world not nation as large as this one, with land that is basically all livable (the contiguous 48 at least) has ever existed for so long under any type of government control with the kinds of freedom we enjoy. Rome held vast amounts of land for a long time but if you study history you will see that Rome let most cities run themselves as long as they continued to pay tribute. No nation that spent so much time supporting people who contributed nothing to growing the wealth of the nation (i.e. our welfare state) has ever lasted long.
What you all should be doing is figuring out how you can get a piece of land where you can grow your own food and raise meat to provide protein, and have enough water. If you are lucky, you will have enough space to set up solar panel or windmills so you can have a little electricity.
The only place that this is possible is the Midwest. States like Kansas, Nevada and Mississippi, the Great Plains, will be fine because they can support small, separate communities. We won’t be worrying about green pieces of paper to trade back and forth because the only good they will be is to help start your cooking fire.
I predict we have 20 years at the most before we will be worrying about putting enough food away for the winter and not what the next best game system will be and if our TV will have a high enough resolution.
We won’t belong to any country, maybe a loose community with a hired sheriff, but no government we can just stop paying if we don’t like what they are doing.
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Why would america have a civil war? What would we fight about? If it gets so bad there is no food or money I can see problems but a Civil War? The reason we are not attacked is there is nothing to attack here anyway! Bush Broke the World...We are ALL in trouble..California is done they cant take care of themselves...SOmething has to break but I dont see this reds idea of 6 parts working. Texas and Mexico no way man.
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No doubt, there will be civil war. Though it is less likely to be among the states. This war will resemble the Revolutionary War more than the US Civil War of the mid 1800's. The federal government of the United States serves corporate interests. The individual state governments are distancing themselves from their federal counterpart as I speak. Right now, at the time of my writing 25 States have passed state resolutions reaffirming their soveriegnty, informing the criminal federal government that the federal laws do not supercede the laws of the state nor the rights of the citizen. War is coming, and coming soon. It will be the criminals who have inserted themselves into public office that will be driven from this land. It will be the foreign agents of Israel and other nations who have usurped our government that will pay with their blood. In the end the rule of law will be returned to the land and there may even be some geopolitical changes, but we, as Americans, will not go quitely into the night. We will never give up our soveriegnty.
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Please.......I would love to see the likes of China & Russia try to occupy the US.

Our civilian, armed citizens are better soldiers and better marksman than any army from the east.

We have over 200mil private weapons!
Not to mention Devine Providence and the unstoppable American spirit on our side. At the end of the day,we would burn piles of dead chinks and ruskies and dance around the flames.

Bring it on........
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Seems to me that Russian academic, Igor Panarin, has played too much of the PC game "Shattered Union". He needs to look at his own countries shape, and not worry about the USA.
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Interesting thought. I know that things will probably get a lot worse, and it does look as though we are headed for a serious economic disaster worldwide, and especially here in the US. But, I hope I speak for most Americans when I say that I doubt we will easily or not easily give up who and what we are. Yes, we are deserving of a swift kick for our poor money management and our glutenous habits, but deep down inside, most of us still have the blood and sweat of our forefathers, not to mention the responsibility to our posterity to stand up for, and I hope we wouldn't give it up for anything short of our lives, which would leave very little for the rest of the world to pick up. Okay, we are facing a huge mess right now, but we will make it through this and whatever else the world throws at us...United and Free.
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The Russian professer is a bit off.Things I said in the past to others months/years before have been super accurate.When God truely reveals it is right on.This is what will happen in sequence and time.In April 2006 I said that the economy/financial markets would begin to collaspe.It did begin the last week of August2008.The stock market would bottom in March 2009.It did.In May 2009 next month trouble in the bond markets and insurance companies yet to come.End of July/beginning of August 2009- the stock market drops to the bottom(not defined)August 6 at noon (what time zone I do not know) the banks close and stay that way for a few weeks.Aug.7-9 rioting and looting over the weekend.August 10 Federalized troops sent to restore order then later UN troops.The Citizens resist and Russian troops cause a civil war inside the central areas of the USA.6.3 million dead out of 7+million but by the prayers of Gods people the troops die the early morning of October 14 never to awake. Much more which leads to the defeat of the USA on May 31 2010 by 10 nations under 7 governments the two main ones being Russia in the east and China in the western USA. 107.2 million American citizens will still be alive at this time.Before this invasion a nuclear war happened destroying 279 USA cities?metro areas.All 12 ohio class submarines hit back Russia and China really hard with 1744 nuclear warheads.
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Russia and China with the other eight countries will subdue America and place its population under their control.Why? Because of evil and Gods judgements upon it. The United States deserves this outcome for its injustices done.
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Let's fix the problem, not be part of it. Everyone wants to even think this would happen. We need to step up to the plate a take care of business, with out the bullsh*t.

There was the movie "war of the worlds"too.
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The posts of Ross, Leah Allen and Gregory Davis resonate with me, though I don’t agree totally with them. Ross, you’re probably not American, which is okay. And your rhetoric about American imperialism is correct, which correlates to Leah’s post about Pax Americana (or the lack thereof), or the New Rome. Obama will NOT fix this, even though the ideal of a more regimented international community sounds simply great. I believe your faith is misplaced, even if Obama puts a band-aid on this gaping wound.

However, where Ross is correct is on the influence of China and their industrial might, in addition to the assets they have in America. It’s an unfortunate reality, even if China is suffering right along side the rest of the world financially. They have a lot of our gold as collateral, and I’m guessing they might want their assets back (if we’re talking about conventional wars and/or financial takeovers). The advantage of the U.S., of course, is that we can simply refuse to honor our financial obligations if it means ruining our nation. China has stopped buying our debts, but we are still indebted to them. Also, China is the perfect template, the textbook government, for the United Nations. That is how they want the rest of the world to operate.

Leah Allen gives a good estimate of 20 years in regard to a return to old agrarian ways and the demise of our technological state. Installing socialism in the U.S. (if it takes root) will take about five years. That will be our swan song, but it would take some time for the country to collapse.

And while Gregory Davis’ prediction is waaaay out there, his statements still ought to remind us of two things: our country operates on prosperity (i.e, a strong economy). No prosperity means no funding, and no funding means no means to keep a country running at its optimum level. When or if it tanks to perilous levels, keep an eye on your standing federal armies, because their deployment to police the People is the next step to keeping the nation stabilized if there’s no food, running water or basic living amenities.
I’m outta here, try the buffet.
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There are a lot of people that seem to be missing the point. No one is saying that there would be some sort of Hollywood style violent takeover. These are just hypothetical ideas of how other countries might influence various regions if the central government of the United States went belly up.

Another thing, I don't know why so many people here think that it is such an impossibility. Many of the states are bankrupt. Most industry is gone. Our "multinational corporations" show no allegiance to our laws and are wrought with corruption. We are raising an entire generation of uneducated, unskilled individuals.

America has been losing it influence from since the 70's, we have dismantled many of our social safety nets and embraced greed and cruelty as virtues. To many around the world we have become the obese invalid that is unable to take care of himself.

Unless we can change course and start to take responsibility on the local level, we are not going to be capable of standing up to foreign influence.

Standing up against corporate fascists is a start.
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The Prof must have a degree in Ultra Nationalism and a Ph. D in Propoganda. Regardless of what happens to America in terms of economic and military misadventures, political disollution of the USA is a terrorist's wet dream. Given the hype this has created, I offer one simple question:

- Why are you Americans so worried? Have you become so ignorant not only of others, but of yourselves as well? Have you forgotten your history? :-p

Fortunately, I know your history, and what it entails.

So, I propose my counterargument to why this particular 'death of the USA' scheme cannot and will not happen.

1) America's would be Conquerers are either unwilling or unable to subjugate the breakaway states. Consider the following:

- Although Alaska was once part of the Russian Empire, this colonial heritage has long been lost as Americans colonized the territory. To propose that Alaska, a state nearly entirely populated by English-speaking US citizens, will catipulate to the country that was regarded in the past (and today, to an extent) as the avowed enemy of capitalism and freedom by most Americans, is laughable. Alaska would most likely go it alone or join Canada for trade and political conveiniences. (ie: Ottawa is a closer federal capital than Moscow or even Washington, and Canadian cities and ports are more easily accessable than other American or Russian cities)

- Even if an 'Atlantic America' joins the EU, it is a moot point. The EU is, as of right now still an association of independent states, not a state itself. Atlantic America, most likely headquartered at Washington, D.C, would still be independent in this relationship.

- The very idea of a Communist state taking over a land as obbsessively decadent and self-centred as the Hollywoodic California has no fans in either L.A. or Beijing. Also, some of the more eastern states would never enter this relationship.

- Texas and it's "New Confederacy" would rather go it alone than join Mexico. Why should Texas, a state with great wealth and political stability, willingly bind itself to the country it
forcably seperated itself from before, and the country that is so impoverished and anarchy ridden that the central government would be unable to protect Texas' interests? Plus, Texans are doing their best to keep Mexicans out allready - not a rosy thought for political union.

- The Midwest has a population greater than that of Canada, and Canada is not an imperialistic power. To ask my countrymen to accept thirty five million Americans is something that is not polite conversation in Canada, as this union would spell political suicide. Quebec, alarmed by the quick reduction of it's influence in Ottawa, and of the Ènglish American `Borg` (ie: `Resistance is futile, Frenchy - you shall be assimilated!) taking up shop, would promptly secede. The Atlantic provinces might follow suit. When the dust settles, we would have a Canada that is mostly inhabited by Americans, who would set up a new American republic in place of our Canadian constitution, and we would rapidly become the new United States.

2) Americans are a united people.

To compare America`s proposed break-up to the dissolution of the USSR is a denial of history. The USSR was a highly centralized state, with most political and economic power held by one of it`s sixteen republics. (Russia) The fifteen other, much smaller Soviet Republics were dragged into the union and the domination of Russia against their nationalist desires. The United States, on the other hand, is a decentralized federation where most of the states are on equal footing. There are of course, the large states and the small states, such as California, New York, and Texas versus Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont; but there is no outright abusive of power in the USA by the large states than there was in the USSR. The US Senate, as a matter of fact, was created to stop the tyranny of the majority.

Plus, the USA is a nation of immigrants - everyone who lives in America today is desended from someone who came to the country hundreds - or in the case of the American Indians - thousands of years ago. Many are recent immigrants. Because of this diversity, and the seemingly endless flow of American nationalism, the idea of America dividing on ethnic lines has no merit. The `ìllegal aliens` are in the USA because they love the country, not because they want to conquer peices of it.

It is understandable why the Russian thinks the way he does. Russia`s historic troubles with the Chechens, Ukrainians, and Kazaks makes the idea of ethnic pluralty without violence a confusing notion for Russians, while it is an undeniable reality in the United States.

3) Global Pecking Order

To suggest that America's neighbors and rivals will carve up the defunct USA implies parity of strength and intent between the conquerers. Consider this:

- Mexico is a weak central state, with very little power to exert authority beyond it's borders.
- Canadians neither want nor are capable of taking the American Midwest.
- the European Union is not a nation-state.
- China does have a huge and powerful army (+2,500,000 soldiers, plus tanks, artillery, advanced aircraft, and a sophisticated command structure with well trained generals)
but only a modest navy. Good luck trying to get to California.

4) The Way Out

Although I don`t believe that America will be partitioned and conquered, I do believe that America is in for some hard times. Eventually the 50 trillion $ debt will catch up with them, and then - CRASH! The end of American global hegemony. The United States will continue to exist, but will be so debt ridden that no nation will lend to it. Faced with this, I predict that the USA will be forced to sell all of it`s overseas military establishments to the countries they occupy, suspend military R&D indefinately, scrap it`s costly nuclear arsenal, decommision much of it`s navy, scrap NASA, end all of it`s remaining social services, and reduce it`s homeland army to a smaller, cheaper, more efficient fighting force. (less than 300,000 soldiers)
In other words, an isolationist America will reammerge - Uncle Sam sans the big stick.
After this painful transistion, US debt should contract enough to allow some form of economic reconstruction to prevent a similar fiasco from ever happening again. During this time I also recommend that America do some soul-searching - rediscover it`s old hatred of imperialism and it`s former love of liberty for all.

5) Finally...

I'd like to get rid of some of the stupid misconceptions I have read in other comments.

- Russians are not Communist anymore. The Soveit Union ended eighteen years ago.

- Texans are not hillbillies. I met a Texan who was visitting Canada once, and he was a great guy with a funny accent.

- Gog and Magog are references to two great alliances of nations, not nations themselves.

- Canadian health care does not fall from the sky. We pay through the nose for it.

- Americans aren't cowards or wimps. The economic crisis was largely caused by rich Americans taking crazy gambles in the financial industry. The American nation as a whole is one of risk-takers. Also explains the over-abundance of firearms.

- Mexican immigrants aren't intentionally destabilizing the USA. They come for work conditions and livelihoods they could not possibly have enjoyed in rural Mexico.

- Canada does have an army; a good efficient army of about 100,000 total persons. But where the US army is akin to a massive, cumbersome broadsword that is difficult to manage and more difficult to swing, Canada's army is more like a small, sharp dagger that is easy to manage and quick to deploy. The American army is designed for long, massive offensive wars, while Canada's army is designed for internal security and international peace keeping. Whether one style is better than another is debatable

- There is absolutely no Scriptuaral reference to the United States, except in the Mormon faith.
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Time for decent states to secede and form a new Nation under Jesus Christ-the real God. Let the rest degenerate and abort themselves out of existence. What else are they good for?
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There is NO country on the face of the earth that will

be able to stand when the treasousness representitives

are within.............................................
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So many things wrong with this I don't even know where to start...

First off, the obvious mistake is that the U.S. is NOT going to break up... what sort of evidence is there for that? But let's humor Igor, and follow his line if thought with a series of less and less likely scenarios...

IF the United States divided, it would NOT divide into 6 separate countries, it would divide into 2. The racist/backward south, aka "Texas Republic," and part of the south of "Central North American Republic." The rest of the states could feasibly join with Canada, but more likely with Canada under U.S. influence.

Now, IF the United States did divide up into 6 regions, which is already extremely unlikely... Mexico and Canada will NOT take over two of them. Russia taking over Alaska is the most likely, followed with China trying to take over the Western U.S. But even then, the other 4 or 5 "states" would not allow it, because even if they aren't joined as an official nation, they still have vested interest in keeping China off of the mainland.

Ugh I could keep going on but I don't know why I'm wasting my time with such a bogus theory.
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