Know-It-All May Suffer from Hindsight Bias

Did you watch a whodunit movie with someone who later proclaimed that he knew the killer all along? Don't be annoyed with such people for they probably couldn't help it. They may be suffering from "hindsight bias":

Researchers found that they are suffering from “hindsight bias”, when a person genuinely believes that they know something when in fact they are hearing or seeing it for the first time.

Although the effects might seem relatively harmless, researchers claimed it could prevent people learning why something has happened or from taking advice.

Prof Neal Roese, of Northwestern University in Chicago, said: “If you feel like you knew it all along, it means you won’t stop to examine why something really happened.

“It’s often hard to convince seasoned decision-makers that they might fall prey to hindsight bias.”

I, of course, have known about it all along: Link

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After many frustrated conversions about books with my mother I starting wondering if there was some sort of science that explained why she always says she knew the end all along, even though we've discussed many possibilities that could occur. It's like she would forget we had those conversations at all.

I feel like I do that same sometimes, too. It's hard to catch yourself at it, since the feeling of knowing is pretty strong as if there were no other explanation.
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