What Are the Real Odds?

Jen Clarke of West London opened four eggs in a row that were all double-yolked. The odds of such a thing happening must be astronomical -or are they?
According to the British Egg Information Service, one in every thousand eggs on average is a double-yolker. They're not sure how they've come to this figure but you would like to think that the British Egg Information Service was able to supply useful information about British Eggs, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

So, if the probability of finding an egg with two yolks is 1/1000 - then to find the likelihood of discovering four in a row you simply multiply the probabilities together four times. One thousand to the power of four brings us to the grand total of one trillion - that's the new-school US-style trillion with 12 zeroes.

If true that would mean the event that occurred in Jen's kitchen was a trillion-to-one event. But is it true? No is the short answer.

Many factors can affect these odds, like the possibility that a certain chicken or flock laying several eggs that ended up in one carton, or the sorting of eggs by size. There are other factors as well, explained in this BBC article. Link -via Metafilter

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@kitandterl, perhaps you should read the entire post before criticising it as "IGNORANT" and "stupid". You seem to have completely missed the point. The intent of the post was to explain why the odds of having multiple double yolkers in a carton are NOT as astronomical as some people would have you believe.

@Sharyn, I have had double yolkers from free range farms in Australia before. By the way, I hate to be a grammar Nazi, but it's "luck of the draw".
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We used to get fresh eggs and you were more likely to get double yolks than not. Which actually makes it quite hard to do some baking.
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Brings back memories of my Grandmother who had an "egg man", old Swiss farmer named Mr.Schmidt. His Jumbo eggs were usually double yolk. Seldom see them in a supermarket egg.
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In the late sixties I belonged to a food co-op that got eggs from some old guy who lived outside the city. Maybe one third of his eggs were double yolked. I never saw that before that time, nor have I seen them since.
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