The Iowa Caucus has come and gone - Barack Obama won the Democratic Caucus, whereas Mike Huckabee won the Republican side.

But exactly how useful are the results from Iowa? Let's take a quick and dirty look at the numbers from 1976 to 2004:

IOWA CAUCUS

Democratic Winners

	Won the Caucus	Won the Party Nomination	Won the Election
1976	"Uncommitted"	Jimmy Carter	Jimmy Carter
1980	Jimmy Carter	Jimmy Carter	Ronald Reagan
1984	Walter Mondale	Walter Mondale	Ronald Reagan
1988	Dick Gephart	Michael Dukakis	George H.W. Bush
1992	Tom Harkin	Bill Clinton	Bill Clinton
1996	Bill Clinton (unopposed)	Bill Clinton	Bill Clinton
2000	Al Gore	Al Gore	George W. Bush
2004	John Kerry	John Kerry	George W. Bush

Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently the party's nomination: 62.5% ( 5 out of 8 )

Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently win the Election: 12.5% ( 1 out of 8 )

Republication Winners

	Won the Caucus	Won the Party Nomination	Won the Election
1976	Gerald Ford	Gerald Ford	Jimmy Carter
1980	George H.W. Bush	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan
1984	Ronald Reagan (unopposed)	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan
1988	Bob Dole	George H.W. Bush	George H.W. Bush
1992	George H.W. Bush (unopposed)	George H.W. Bush	Bill Clinton
1996	Bob Dole	Bob Dole	Bill Clinton
2000	George W. Bush	George W. Bush	George W. Bush
2004	George W. Bush (unopposed)	George W. Bush	George W. Bush

Percentage of Republican candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently the party's nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )

Percentage of Republican candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently win the Election: 37.5% ( 3 out of 8 )

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

Democratic Winners

	Won the Primary	Won the Party Nomination	Won the Election
1976	Jimmy Carter	Jimmy Carter	Jimmy Carter
1980	Jimmy Carter	Jimmy Carter	Ronald Reagan
1984	Gary Hart	Walter Mondale	Ronald Reagan
1988	Michael Dukakis	Michael Dukakis	George H.W. Bush
1992	Paul Tsongas	Bill Clinton	Bill Clinton
1996	Bill Clinton (unopposed)	Bill Clinton	Bill Clinton
2000	Al Gore	Al Gore	George W. Bush
2004	John Kerry	John Kerry	George W. Bush

Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently the party's nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )

Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently win the Election: 25% ( 2 out of 8 )

Republican Winners

	Won the Primary	Won the Party Nomination	Won the Election
1976	Gerald Ford	Gerald Ford	Jimmy Carter
1980	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan
1984	Ronald Reagan (unopposed)	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan
1988	George H.W. Bush	George H.W. Bush	George H.W. Bush
1992	George H.W. Bush	George H.W. Bush	Bill Clinton
1996	Pat Buchanan	Bob Dole	Bill Clinton
2000	John McCain	George W. Bush	George W. Bush
2004	George W. Bush (unopposed)	George W. Bush	George W. Bush

Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently the party's nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )

Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently win the Election: 50% ( 4 out of 8 )

COMPARING THE TWO

From 1976 to 2000	Won the Primary & Party Nomination	Won the Primary & the Election
Iowa
Democrats	62.5%	12.5%
Republicans	75%	37.5%
New Hampshire
Democrats	75%	25%
Republicans	75%	50%

Conclusion

It seems that the Iowa Caucus is more effective in determining who the party nomination will be for Republicans than Democrats ( 75% vs. 62.5% ). The New Hampshire Primary does a slightly better job in determining the nomination from both parties.

In case of winning the election, New Hampshire is better at predicting the Election winners for both Democrats and Republican than the Iowa Caucus. This is especially true for the Republicans (as they've won 5 out of the last 8 elections). Another way to say it is, if a Republican won the Presidential Election, then it's more likely that candidate won the New Hampshire Primary than the Iowa Caucus.

Source: Iowa Caucus [wiki] | New Hampshire Primary [wiki]