Geeky Laws

There are lawyersly laws ... and then there are geeky laws. This article is about the latter, and how we should all abide by them:

1. Amara's Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run"

Roy Amara is an engineer and futurist (long before that term became trendy) at the Institute for the Future think tank. Amara's law is probably best illustrated by the "Hype Cycle," a term coined by Gartner Group to characterize the hype or "Peak of Inflated Expecations" and subsequent "Trough of Disillusionment" before reaching the "Slope of Enlightenment" and "Plateau of Productivity".


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