The Bulgarian Lottery: Coincidence or Conspiracy?

By Alex in Everything Else on Sep 20, 2009 at 2:31 pm

Was it a freak coincidence or proof of a vast lottery conspiracy? In Bulgaria, the set of 6 winning numbers were drawn twice in a row:

Sports Minister Svilen Neikov ordered an investigation after the numbers 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 were selected, in a different order, by a machine live on television on September 6 and 10. The results caused suspicions of manipulation.

An investigation found no wrongdoing in the draw or determining the winners, its chairman Konstantin Simeonov said.

"We cannot talk about any manipulation," he said.

The chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in two consecutive rounds was one in more than 4 million but was not impossible, respected mathematician Michail Konstantinov has said.

Link (Photo: Stoyan Nenov / Reuters)

Tags: Bulgaria, conspiracy, lottery

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c
Sep 20th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Looks suspiciously like the LOST numbers…at least 4 out of 6 of them
4thirty
Sep 20th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
thats most of the LOST numbers.
xopl
Sep 20th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Check out the winning numbers of the Wisconsin State Lottery Pick 3 on Thursday, October 31, 1996:

http://www.wilottery.com/lottogames/apick3.asp

6-6-6

I saw it happen live on TV.
delilah
Sep 20th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
almost all the numbers from the tv show Lost
Cola
Sep 20th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
I’d be more surprised if it never happened.

That’s the thing about statistics. Statistically speaking, unlikely things should sometimes occur, but people will always impute meaning to things which are meaningless. Which isn’t to say that it isn’t interesting.
MadMolecule
Sep 20th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
If someone were rigging the lottery, they’d be incredibly stupid to rig it to pick the same numbers twice in a row. I vote for coincidence.
catskill
Sep 20th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
I dont understand the odds though. Here in FL we have a six number Lotto and the odds are like one in fifty million to hit it. So how can hitting 6 numbers be one in four million?
neko
Sep 20th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
i was wondering what they’d do for this season’s Lost ARG
D Bozko
Sep 21st, 2009 at 6:36 am
For those of you who aren’t LOST fans…
Lottery numbers 04-15-23-24-35-42
LOST numbers….04-08-15-16-23-42

The odds in the article about two consecutive draws being the same do seem low. In a fifty number field/six number draw the odds of picking all six is 14 million to 1. So how does the two day/same numbers odds end up at 4 million to 1? It all seems strange to me, especially the fact that 18 people picked those same six numbers for the next draw. Who picks the complete set of numbers that just won?
Skipweasel
Sep 21st, 2009 at 7:08 am
What makes the maths appear skewed is that you’re thinking of the chances of getting one set of numbers on two days running. Of course, what you should be interested in is the chance of finding /any/ set of numbers the same on two days running.

There’s a similar problem about how many people do you have to have in a room before there’s a better than even chance of two of them sharing a birthday. Turns out to be around 23, not the 180 or so you might expect. The reason is there are a lot of possible birthdays, but most people think only from their own perspective – i.e. how many people share /their/ birthday, not how many people share /any/ birthday.

There’s a Wiki page which explains the maths and which can easily be extended to the lottery figures.
Skipweasel
Sep 21st, 2009 at 7:08 am
Oh, sorry, the Wiki page is…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
MadMolecule
Sep 21st, 2009 at 9:21 am
Catskill, I don’t know how the Florida lottery works, but maybe the odds are better in the Bulgarian one because they’re picking six numbers from a smaller range? Like picking six numbers from 1-45 instead of 1-50 or so? Just a guess.

Skipweasel, here’s another way to think of it: Suppose there are 5 million possible number combinations in a particular lottery. No matter what combination of six numbers comes up one day, the numbers the following day have a one-in-five-million chance of being the same.
lapidus
Sep 21st, 2009 at 1:15 pm
the fact that those are most of the LOST numbers but not all leads me to conclude that Jack’s plan worked and that the Incident changed two of the numbers.
DavePeters
Sep 21st, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I believe there are 45 numbers in the Bulgarian lottery, so the odds are 1 in 8,145,060.

I suspect that the one mathematician’s odds are off because, frankly,many if not most mathematicians know squat about probability calculations.

By the way, reports are that 3 of the same 6 numbers turned up in the NEXT drawing.

Random chance? I don’t think so.
qijino1236
Sep 23rd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
4, 15, 23, 24 , 35 , 42
sept 6 & 10

4, 15, 23, 2*4, 3+5, 42
6 + 10 —–/—/–
/ / \
/ / |
/ / |
// |
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
qijino1236
Sep 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
4, 15, 23, 24 , 35 , 42
sept 6 & 10

4,.15,.23,.2*4,.3+5,.42
6 + 10 —–/—/–
………../…/…\
………./../…..|
………/./…….|
……..//………|
…4,…8,…15,..16, 23, 42
qijino1236
Sep 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
4, 15, 23, 24 , 35 , 42
sept 6 & 10

4,.15,.23,.2*4,.3+5,.42
6 + 10 –/—/–
………../…/…\
………./../…..|
………/./…….|
……..//………|
…4,..8,…15,..16, 23, 42
qijino1236
Sep 23rd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
stupid spacing problems
muse123
Oct 11th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
i think we thought so much of the LOST numbers they are stuck in the fabric of space and time. LOL!

or it could have been the incident….
Rick the mad one
Oct 27th, 2010 at 12:42 am
I second DavePeters’s calculation!
John Wigan
Dec 27th, 2010 at 11:14 pm
Its clearly an electro magnetic computer error fraud, electro magnets can be switched on to ‘pull’ the balls while looking completely natural, this is how it is done all over the world.How did a british presenter call’ 25′ before the ball was even droppred!! he was either psychic or knew what the selected balls were before hand, but these are very rich organisations and they can brush aything under the carpet..

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